Episode 815: The Season-Previews Preview
Date February 10, 2016 Summary Ben and Sam preview their fourth annual 30-team season-preview podcast series with preview partners Jeffrey Paternostro and George Bissell, then answer listener emails about prospect lists, talking to scouts, fantasy drafting, Ian Desmond, and Kenta Maeda. Topics * Impact of prospect lists * Influence of prospect writers * Fantasy baseball draft strategy * Ian Desmond's 2016 outlook * What to watch for at minor league games * Bad pinch runners * Kenta Maeda's trade value Intro Queen, "Coming Soon" Outro David Bowie, "The Next Day" Banter * Ben and Sam will soon start their annual season-preview series. They will have episodes about each MLB team in order (from worst to best) of PECOTA expected winning percentage. * Jeff and George will assist this year with the preview series and help answer emails. Email Questions * Paul: "Some questions came to mind after seeing a tweet from a non-BP internet prospect guy. Some folks were complaining about a recently published prospect list and he stated that there is real damage done to players by bad rankings, like a decrease in autograph and promotion money opportunities, especially for players that didn't get the big signing bonuses. Do internet prospect rankings really have a real world influence, either in terms of teams valuation of players, public relations efforts, or in player's income opportunities? If so, is there a possibility for shady dealing by teams to get their players ranked better, and are there safeguards against that from influential sites? Is there a problem with a revolving or a one-way door in which prospect writers either come from teams or seek team jobs after putting out influential rankings? This could be similar to politicians or government regulators who leave office or government agencies only to take on big money jobs inside the industries they were recently just regulating." * Mark: "I am starting a five by five head to head league at my office. I'd prefer roto but a lot of the guys I'm playing with are fantasy football players and don't realize the joys of season long roto. When I normally do roto I always wait on pitching. I almost always get a majority of my position players before I draft a pitcher and rely on sleepers, streamers, and injury replacements to fill out my pitching staff. My question is whether or not this strategy will work in head to head or should I spend an early pick or two on pitching? If I load up on hitting can I rely on replacement levelish-pitching to win me a category or two and assure I win most weeks?" * Julio: "Does Ian Desmond have a starting job by the start of the season and does he perform as a top 7 shortstop in 2016?" * Kevin: "I've been going to minor league games (low A midwest league) since I was a kid. When I was younger I just appreciated going to a baseball game. As I've gotten older the quality of play and lack of familiarity with the players, combined with the overly family friendly atmosphere has made the experience less enjoyable. But since last year I've been getting more interested in the prospect and scouting aspect of things so have tried to come back around to minor league ball from that perspective. I bought a ticket package for the local midwest league team and will be going to about a half dozen games this year. With that in mind do you have any pointers for how to get the most enjoyment from watching these games with more of a prospect perspective? I can't really tell the difference between guys who might have a shot at moving up in the ranks and those who don't. I know I should look at things like their age compared to the level and getting better at recognizing pitch types would help me as well. I've red Ben's series on Grantland about scout school and Kiley McDaniel's intro to scouting series from last year on Fangraphs so I'm vaguely familiar with the concepts. To make a long question short, how can I get maximum enjoyment out of watching baseball in the low minors?" * Eric: "What kind of prospect package would Kenta Maeda's contract return if come July 15th there are no longer questions about his game translating to the majors and he's already established as an Iwakuma-caliber third starter?" Play Index * Sam uses to Play Index to look up players that pinch ran often but weren't good at it. * 1974-1980 are the top 7 years for most frequent use of pinch runners. * Matt Alexander pinch ran 271 times in his career. No other player has more than 200 pinch running appearances. * Sam compares stolen bases per game, runs scored, stolen base success rate, and plate appearances per game of the top 500 players with the most pinch running experience. * Sam thinks that Glenn Burke was the worst pinch runner of all time. He only stole a base twice in 38 career pinch running appearances. He scored six times. Notes * George recommends that in head-to-head leagues a team should have at least one ace and try to stream two relievers. * Sam doesn't like the idea of streaming pitchers in a fantasy league and winning simply because you invest far more time or make way more moves than anyone in the league. He notes, "Don't be the one that people hate" in your league. * Jeff recommends sitting behind home plate at a minor league game and trying to (politely) talk to scouts about the players they are there to scout. * Ben and Sam discussed Kenta Maeda's unique contract structure in Episode 789. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 815: The Season-Previews Preview Category:Episodes Category:Guest Episodes